The Man who could be Pope, Part 2

The fate of Cardinal bishop Tagle’s papal ambition lies in the full alignment of political fortunes – not the influence of the Holy Spirit. The Vatican conclave is really another word for papal election and the sitting pope has a lot of clout to influence the outcome. It’s not rocket science. It is more Politics 100 and many of the previous popes exercised such prerogative.

Cardinals are often sequestered in the Sistine Chapel until the white smoke emerges from the chimney. The sequestration is a must because voting is repeated for as long as it takes, until a new consensus pope is chosen. It is an imperative, therefore, that outside influence should not be countenanced. Cardinal voters are sworn to absolute secrecy, to add a façade of order and dignity to the process, but the conclave is anything but based on previous conclave documents showing vote tallies and the conduct of the election itself.

Some conclaves in the past were either bloody, acrimonious, or just plain silly. There was a time when three different popes were elected, all claiming to be legit. To settle the matter, some trickery (dagdag-bawas-vote shaving) was used that eventually proclaimed the cousin of the election official. When the powerful election official died, chaos descended once more in the City of God, as St. Augustine called it, resulting in two claimants to the papacy. The military intervened and allowed one to prevail.

There were cases of vote buying and influence peddling in earlier centuries. There was also a time when candidates were pre-selected based on loyalties to the Crown. The emperor, king or queen exercised veto power for those elected outside of the authorized list of candidates. Clearly, the system was either rigged or corrupt. The genesis of the papal selection can be traced to Roman emperor Constantine who legalized Christianity and presided over the selection process of his era.

In the modern world, conclaves have survived sans political interference from royalties – thanks to the Vatican I Council who decreed Papal Infallibility. Since then, papal elections are held by secret balloting for as many rounds as it takes. Candidates are called papabili, plural for papabile. The papabile doesn’t declare his candidacy or would not even fill-out a form signifying his intention to run. A red hat is all they needed and papal blessing to win.

There are no campaign periods, instead, aspirants pick their stars and toot their horns indirectly through surrogates or embark on speaking engagements where every word mentioned is scrutinized and mined for something bold, something far-reaching and down-to-earth. There are no political parties, but candidates belong to a voting group or camp of conservatives or liberals much like in the “outside” where such division is in full display.

While the official line indicates that the pope-elect is chosen with finality under the influence of the Holy Spirit, the real drivers are democratic rules that are imposed by humans, including the requirement for the winner to garner two-thirds majority. Eventually, a consensus winner will emerge, however, every added round of voting delays the election process as more campaigning and speeches are allowed in the conclave until the horse is beaten to death.

The longest papal conclave happened in the 13th century following the death of Pope Clement IV that lasted nearly three years, without a selection. Papal conclaves have the urgency of determining the successor to a vacant seat pronto because of the importance of maintaining stability to a huge bureaucracy and a global billion-dollar business entity with billions of customers (followers). Typically, it should only take days to name one, and one week is the most. This took forever because the conclave reflected the deep divisions in the Roman Catholic Church, with so much bitterness and rancor during the deliberations.

Two powerful Italian families were pulling the strings. One side was loyal to the pope while the other owed its loyalty to the Roman emperor. A successor was eventually agreed upon ushering in the tradition of locking the doors to the conclave room. To ensure that the cardinals could reach consensus, the locals even removed the roof and exposed the cardinals to the elements while only wearing a red hat. The chosen one who turned out to become Pope Gregory X was not even present in the conclave.

Clearly the rules have changed but some of the practices, traditions remain. Presently, Pope Francis has turned the tables against recalcitrant conservative cardinals by packing the College of Cardinals with majority of his appointees via annual consistories. He is also staying alive, waiting it out until the conservative papabili contenders reach the disqualifying age of 80, or retires. The question is, will it be Asian, African, or American?

While in the past, Italian cardinals dominated the elections, Pope Francis is clearly not in the mood for another Italian pope. And why not? Out of the 266 past popes, 217 were Italians. Francis is the first non-European, first South (Latin) American, and first Jesuit pope. He broke the ceiling already, why not break another one for either an Asian, African, or North American (particularly for the United States)?

First, let us look at the demographics. According to Vatican archives, 40 percent of Catholics are from the Caribbean and Latin America, 16% Sub-Saharan Africa, and 12% Asia-Pacific. The rest, 36%, are from Europe. Catholicism in Europe and the Americas are in decline. These are the places where Pope Francis had to personally go to and apologize for past wrongs of the Catholic Church. In contrast, the business of saving souls and gaining adherents are booming in Africa and Asia.

So, the betting goes that the next pick will be from these two demographics with Tagle’s odds at 6-1 and 4-1 to the Africans. Tagle is a liberal while both African cardinals are traditionalists and with conservative bent in the mold of Pope Benedict. Both African cardinals have resigned their prefects as members of the Roman Curia, the Vatican’s administrative bureaucracy.

There are two possible African candidates who could give Tagle a run for his money. Cardinal Peter Turkson from Ghana and Cardinal Robert Sarah from Guinea, West Africa. Cardinal Turkson has been a high-ranking African cardinal at the Vatican and a key adviser to the current pope. His abrupt resignation in 2021 followed that of the other African cardinal who resigned earlier that year. Turkson is already past the mandatory retirement age of 75, but still eligible to vote in the conclave.

Turkson’s move in 2021 was a calculated risk that backfired. The tenure for a prefect is 5 years and he was reaching that. He gave the pope the opportunity to extend him, but Francis accepted his resignation. It appeared that the external review, an unusual audit of his department that was ordered by Pope Francis probably rankled his feathers and was the last straw that broke the camel’s back.

It was also the same year that the pope promoted Tagle to cardinal-bishop. (To be continued)